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Assessments of Anticriminal Plans and the Prediction of Criminal Futures

A Research Note

Carleton University

WALTER FRIESEN

Simon Fraser University

These notes place an important limitation on the conclusions drawn by Friesen and Andrews (1982) regarding the predictive validity of a measure of the inprogram self-regulation efforts of 42 young-adult probationers. In the earlier report, assessments of self-regulation were found to be reliable (interrater r(20) = .96) and they correlated with intake socialization scores (r(42) = .38), and with reconvictions monitored from the start of probation to the end of three postprobation years (r(42) = -.38). The present note shows that the predictive validity of the self-regulation scores was only evident among high-risk cases: The correlation was -.70 with the recidivism of 19 low-socialization cases compared with -.02 among 23 high-socialization probationers. The results are discussed in relation to the risk principle of case classification.

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 14, No. 1, 33-37 (1987)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854887014001004


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