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Actuarial Assessment of Risk for Violence
Predictive Validity of the VRAG and the Historical Part of the HCR-20
MARTIN GRANN
Karolinska Institute, Stockholm
HENRIK BELFRAGE
Karolinska Institute, Stockholm
ANDERS TENGSTRÖM
Karolinska Institute, Stockholm
This article explores the predictive validity of two actuarial risk assessment instruments among mentally disordered offenders in Sweden: the historical part (H-10) of a historical, clinical, and risk management factors instrument (HCR-20) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Actuarial scores were obtained retrospectively in two populations: one group of violent offenders with personality disorders and one with violent offenders diagnosed with schizophrenia. The predictive accuracy was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic analysis using a violent reconviction within 2 years from release or discharge as the criterion variable. Both scales fared better in the group of personality-disordered offenders than in the group of offenders with schizophrenia, and the H-10 fared better than the VRAG in both offender groups. The study found that historical data maintain a robust predictive validity in a population of personality-disordered offenders, whereas clinical and risk management factors may be of greater importance in offender populations in which major mental disorders are prevalent.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 27, No. 1,
97-114 (2000)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854800027001006
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