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The Predictive Validity of Risk Assessment with Violent Young Offenders

A 1-Year Examination of Criminal Outcome

Youth Forensic Psychiatric Services, Burnaby, British Columbia, rcatchpo{at}sfu.ca

Heather M. Gretton

Youth Forensic Psychiatric Services, Burnaby, British Columbia, heather.gretton{at}gems7.gov.bc.ca

This study is an examination of the following three instruments for their ability to predict recidivism in violent young offenders: the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth, the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory, and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version. The instruments were retrospectively coded from file information on 74 young violent offenders. The authors followed them up for 1 year, examining criminal charges and convictions. They examined the predictive accuracy of each instrument using areas under the curve (AUCs). For general reoffending, AUCs ranged from .74 to .78. For violent reoffending, the AUCs were all .73. Results indicated a moderate to strong relationship between each of the instruments and both general and violent reoffending. The implications of risk assessment for intervention and follow-up are discussed.

Key Words: psychopathy • adolescence • risk assessment • violence • criminality • prediction

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 30, No. 6, 688-708 (2003)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854803256455


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