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A Multiple-Models Approach to Violence Risk Assessment Among People with Mental Disorder

University of Massachusetts Medical Center

Pamela Clark Robbins

Policy Research Associates

Eric Silver

The Pennsylvania State University

Roumen Vesselinov

Policy Research Associates

Henry J. Steadman

Policy Research Associates

John Monahan

University of Virginia

Edward P. Mulvey

University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine

Paul S. Appelbaum

University of Massachusetts Medical Center

Thomas Grisso

University of Massachusetts Medical Center

Loren H. Roth

University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine

Actuarial models for violencerisk assessment have proliferatedin recent years. In this article, we describe an approach that integrates the predictions of many actuarial risk-assessment models, each of which may capture a different but important facet of the interactive relationship between the measured risk factors and violence. Using this multiple-models approach, we ultimately combined the results of five prediction models generated by the iterative classification tree (ICT) methodology developed in the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. This combination of models produced results not only superior to those of any of its constituent models, but superior to any other actuarial violence risk-assessment procedure reported in the literature to date.

Key Words: multiple models • violence risk • mental disorder • assessment

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 31, No. 3, 324-340 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854804263635


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