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Psychological Profiling of Serial Arson Offenses an Assessment of Skills and Accuracy

Sydney, Australia, richard_kocsis{at}hotmail.com

Although criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to arson offenses, little empirical research exists to substantiate this claim. This study sought to build on previous studies conducted by Kocsis, Irwin, Hayes, and Nunn (2000) by examining the accuracy of professional profilers with others in constructing a profile of a serial arsonist in response to case information presented. The professional profilers produced the most accurate profiles, followed by a group of university science students. Senior detectives and fire investigators tended to perform the worst and never better than a control group that had no specific information about the crime and could do little more than guess. The results offer some insight into the requisite skills for effective profiling. The key factor appears to be a capacity for objective and logical analysis—a characteristic shared by science students and professional profilers.

Key Words: criminal psychological profiling accuracy • serial arson

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 31, No. 3, 341-361 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854803262586


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