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Criminal Justice and Behavior
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Substance Use is a Robust Predictor of Adolescent Recidivism

Mike Stoolmiller

Oregon Social Learning Center

Elaine A. Blechman

University of Colorado-Boulder, eblechman{at}colorado.edu

How well does substance use predict adolescent recidivism? When the Cox proportional hazards model was applied to officially recorded first rearrest of 505 juvenile offenders, a best-fitting complex multivariate model indicated that: (a) parent reports that youths "often" use substances more than doubles first rearrest risk, (b) averaged youth and parent substance use reports predict recidivism better than a single source, (c) parent or youth denial of youth substance use predicts recidivism, (d) age at first arrest does not predict recidivism, (e) non-White/non-Asians have a 79% higher recidivism risk than peers, (f) parent-reported delinquency predicts recidivism with declining accuracy, and (g) substance use robustly predicts recidivism despite prior reported delinquency, gender, ethnicity, age, follow-up time, or data source. Findings are related to host-provocation theory.

Key Words: adolescence • denial • juvenile • delinquency • parenting • recidivism • substance use

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 3, 302-328 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854804274372


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