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Comparative Validity Analysis of Multiple Measures of Violence Risk in a Sample of Criminal Offenders

Simon Fraser University

Melissa Yeomans

Correctional Service of Canada

Douglas P. Boer

Correctional Service of Canada

This study compared the predictive validity of multiple indices of violence risk among 188 general population criminal offenders: Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) Violence Risk Assessment Scheme, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), Violent Offender Risk Assessment Scale (VORAS), Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), and Screening Version (PCL:SV). Several indices were related to violent recidivism with large statistical effect sizes: HCR-20 (Total, Clinical and Risk Management scales, structured risk judgments), VRAG, and behavioral scales of psychopathy measures. Multivariate analyses showed that HCR-20 indices were consistently related to violence and that the VRAG entered some analyses. Findings are inconsistent with a position of strict actuarial superiority, as HCR-20 structured risk judgments—an index of structured professional or clinical judgment—were as strongly related to violence.

Key Words: HCR-20 • VRAG • PCL-R • violence risk assessment • violence prediction • violence risk management • structured professional judgment • clinical prediction • actuarial prediction • psychopathy

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 5, 479-510 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854805278411


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