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Criminal Justice and Behavior
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Risk-Appraisal Versus Self-Report in the Prediction of Criminal Justice Outcomes

A Meta-Analysis

Glenn D. Walters

Federal Correctional Institution

Twenty-seven individual pairs of effect sizes from 22 prospective studies employing one or more of the following five risk-appraisal procedures: Historical-Clinical-Risk Scales (HCR–20), Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF), Level of Service-Inventory (LSI), Psychopathy Checklist (PCL), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), and one or more self-report measures were subjected to meta-analysis. Although risk-appraisal procedures displayed an advantage over self-report measures in recidivism prediction, the two methods produced comparable results when the meta-analysis was restricted to investigations using content-relevant self-report predictors. Incremental validity analysis of 72 risk-appraisal/self-report contrasts revealed that bothsets of measures accounted for criminal justice outcomes beyond the variance attributable to the alternate method.

Key Words: risk assessment • self-report measures • meta-analysis • prediction • Psychopathy Checklist

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 33, No. 3, 279-304 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854805284409
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