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Classifying Juvenile Offenders According to Risk of Recidivism

Predictive Validity, Race/Ethnicity, and Gender

Columbia University

Mark W. Fraser

Steven H. Day

Valerie Cooley

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Structured risk assessment instruments are increasingly used in juvenile justice systems to support judicial decision making. They help juvenile justice authorities identify youths with a higher likelihood of repeat delinquency and reduce discretion associated with disposition decision making. To be effective, these instruments should be accurate across diverse populations. This study describes the predictive validity of the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR) in a sample of 9,534 adjudicated juveniles in North Carolina. Results show the predictive validity of the NCAR to differ by gender and race/ethnicity. Closer inspection reveals that risk factors for recidivism differed according to demographic group and that brief risk assessment instruments such as the NCAR leave other risk factors unmeasured. The results support the utility of risk assessment for juvenile justice decision making and suggest strategies to improve the validity of risk assessment for all offender groups.

Key Words: risk assessment • juvenile justice • juvenile court • delinquency • structured decision making

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 33, No. 3, 305-324 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854806286451


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