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Actuarial Assessment of Risk for Reoffense Among Adult Sex Offenders

Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of the Static-2002 and Five Other Instruments

University of Toronto and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada University of Nottingham, Peaks Unit, Rampton Hospital, Nottinghamshire Healthcare Trust, Nottinghamshire, UK

Howard E. Barbaree

University of Toronto and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada

Michael C. Seto

University of Toronto and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada

Edward J. Peacock

Correctional Service of Canada, Ontario, Canada

Leigh Harkins

University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

Kevin T. Hansen

University of Toronto and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada

This study extended previous research comparing a set of widely employed actuarial risk assessment schemes as well as a new instrument, the Static-2002, in a sample of 468 sex offenders followed for an average of 5.9 years. All of the risk assessment instruments (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism [RRASOR], Static-99, Static-2002, and Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised [MnSOST-R]) were found to predict the recidivism outcomes for which they were designed. Although significant, indices of accuracy were generally lower than those reported by the developers of these instruments, even under conditions that have been shown to optimize predictive performance. For serious recidivism, the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and SORAG was significantly superior to that of the RRASOR, and the SORAG was significantly superior to the MnSOST-R as well. There were no significant differences among instruments in accuracy of predicting sexual recidivism.

Key Words: sex offenders • recidivism prediction • actuarial risk assessment • Static-2002 • Static-99 • RRASOR • VRAG • SORAG • MnSOST-R

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