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Criminal Justice and Behavior
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Aging Versus Stable Enduring Traits as Explanatory Constructs in Sex Offender Recidivism

Partitioning Actuarial Prediction Into Conceptually Meaningful Components

Howard E. Barbaree

University of Toronto, Howard_Barbaree{at}camh.net

Calvin M. Langton

University of Nottingham

Ray Blanchard

University of Toronto

James M. Cantor

University of Toronto

This study investigates whether sex offenders' age at release from custody affects their likelihood of reoffending. The participants were 468 men with a mean follow-up (time at risk) of just more than 5 years after release. Items from the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism, the Static-99, and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Test—Revised were coded. Results show that the predictive ability of items tapping antisocial behavior is inflated by their association with age at release, whereas the predictive ability of items tapping sexual deviance is diminished by that association. An assessment instrument comprising an age-corrected antisocial behavior scale, an age-corrected sexual deviance scale, and an age at release scale predicted recidivism as well as the best existing actuarial instruments. Cox regression analysis shows that age at release provided unique and significant predictive ability over and above age-corrected antisocial behavior and age-corrected sexual deviance combined.

Key Words: actuarial assessment • sex offenders • recidivism • aging • age at release

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 36, No. 5, 443-465 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854809332283
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