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Criminal Justice and Behavior
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Assessment of Community Reintegration Planning for Sex Offenders

Poor Planning Predicts Recidivism

Gwenda M. Willis

University of Canterbury, gwen.willis{at}gmail.com

Randolph C. Grace

University of Canterbury, randolph.grace{at}canterbury.ac.nz

Poor planning for reintegrating child molesters from prison to the community is a likely risk factor for sexual recidivism. The quality of reintegration planning was retrospectively measured for groups of recidivist (n = 30) and nonrecidivist (n = 30) child molesters who were individually matched on static risk level and time since release. Recidivists had significantly poorer reintegration planning scores than nonrecidivists, consistent with a previous study by the authors. Data from both studies were combined (total N = 141), and survival analyses showed that poor reintegration planning predicted an increased rate of recidivism. Accommodation, employment, and social support planning combined to predict recidivism, with predictive validity comparable to static risk models (area under the curve = .71). Summing these items yielded a scale of reintegration planning quality that differentiated well between recidivists and nonrecidivists and may have practical utility for risk assessment as an adjunct to static models.

Key Words: sex offenders • child molesters • reintegration • recidivism • pedophilia • risk assessment

Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 36, No. 5, 494-512 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854809332874
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